Sunday, October 20, 2013

Update for the week of October 18th, 2013

Welcome back to CRI's ongoing Crude Oil Day Trading Blog.

Roll week - December Crude CLZ3
The first picture is the daily, weekly and 120 minute charts with Crude Oil's term structure and CoT summary for the week of Oct. 18th, 2013. Each trading day (time permitting) a 15 minute chart is added and trades for that day are reviewed:



Market Overview: The end to the current US Fed. government budget battle (and its associated debt ceiling issues) has come and gone. While many were worried, it does seem to me the current market action is nothing more than business as usual. The US dollar is looking rather 'toppy' here in itself and I am sitting here wondering if the 'risk-off' trade is slowly unwinding. Bonds look happier, stocks are still pointing up and economic barometers like Copper actually don't look too bad. Indeed, this year, like so many in the past, may see the snow come and with it some great buying opportunities. On a final note, through all of the mess in Washington, Sugar prices have moved considerably higher. OnlyDoubles trade blog subscribers have been given a really nice treat for less then a months work - who says there are no bull markets...

Weekly highlight: This past week saw price remain within a wide downwardly pointing channel inwhich successively lower lows and lower highs took us down. Considering the mounting technically bearish evidence (the daily chart alone has three significant downside price objectives working at the moment) one shouldn't be too surprised to see us trade to the bottom of the current 2 hour channel over the coming week or two. Indeed, October often comes with some surprises so I for one am in no hurry to make any serious commitments to the long side until we are comfortably into November.

Personal journal: Aside from one really bad mess-up, I have been doing really well of late. I have been disciplined and was making small amounts of money. Now for the mess-up. I had one bad day, Thursday, in which I hit my PLL and exceeded it (-43.5 ticks). I did three trades over the period of 8 minutes and basically broke all my trading plan rules. While I was in the trades I completely lost touch with my regiment and ignored lots of 'mixed' signs that in themselves would have prevented me from doing anything. I honestly felt possessed and only 'came to' when I was looking at a $435 loss and my entire positive balance erased.....remarkable. I shut down immediately after the third loss and spent the rest of the day very depressed. I did spend Friday chatting with peers and journaling. It was tough but it was also good to really analyze what happened. I need to plan the 'what happens if I am stopped' better. and I think I need to work on that 'rule' for a bit over the coming sessions...

Trading Plan: HVT setups where price has entered an OTE zone, momentum is currently in diveregence on 15m/3m, price is above or below daily Volprofile VH/VL and re-entering it and 3 bar 1m price reversal pattern as entry. All orders entered on an AOCO basis on the completion of 1m 3bar pattern at entry level. AOCO Stop at no more than -14, exit must be at least 1.5 times risk or +21 ticks. Order should rest near 38.2% retracement of prior move, PoC, Recent H/L.
MUST SHUT DOWN on 2 initial losses or breach of 50% highwater mark on the day.

 
That's all for this post, 
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/



Screenshot of current L&B trading plan:


Sunday, October 13, 2013

Update for the week of October 11th, 2013

Welcome back to CRI's ongoing Crude Oil Day Trading Blog.

For this week's post I thought I would do something a little different. I have broken this past week down by HVT setups. Each image is a 2hr, 15m and 1m with Fib's, MA's and notes. Each image should demonstrate 1. into or exceded OTE L/Sh ss, momentum divergence then 1 minute 3bar reversal pattern for entry. These charts do not include Volume Profile data but needless to say, all of these trade locations were either above or below 70% value lines. All of the setups performed well and hit their respective 1.5 x risk profit objectives. Indeed, the signals were so good, they often translated into substantial gains with little to no downside risk.

I am therefore going to concentrate my efforts in hunting these rather unique opportunities and will only consider trades for the coming week that meet the basic HVT model.

10/07/13

HVT Long 


 HVT Short


 10/08/13 

HVT Short

  

10/09/13
 
HVT Long


10/10/13

HVT Long


 HVT Short


10/11/13

HVT long setup came in but was more than 30 ticks risk so did not give trade consideration



Needless to say, it was both a busy and profitable week for HVT traders. Especially for those who could run multiple cars and on the exit of the 1st car, move stops on remaining 'freebies' to breakeven and then let the market go were it may...and oh boy, did it go in a couple cases....

These setups are my bread and butter and I will be hunting for them through the entire week. I shall try and post a 3pic summary (like above) when I see one pop up.

Cheers
That's all for this post, 
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/



Sunday, October 6, 2013

Update for the week of October 4th, 2013

Welcome back to CRI's ongoing Crude Oil Day Trading Blog.

The first picture is the daily, weekly and 120 minute charts with Crude Oil's term structure and CoT summary for the week of Oct. 4th, 2013. Each trading day (time permitting) a 15 minute chart is added and trades for that day are reviewed:





Market Overview: Most of the major currency pairs spent the week extending previously established directions vs. the greenback as there were few new commodity trends established through the first week of Q4\'13. Since it is the new quarter, I for one shall be watching to see if that continues through the entire \'1st 2 weeks\' of the quarter (to get an idea of where fund managers are putting their money to work). Looking at the market from a broader perspective, stocks look very over extended while bonds have yet to really turn higher in earnest. October has historically seen some wild gyrations through its end, shall this go round be any different? That is too hard to tell at this point but I for one would not considering any purchases of significance until after it starts to snow and/or we hear some serious crying. 

Weekly highlight: This past week saw both the daily bear ab=cd target (102.08) and the daily 50% level (101.26) get hit. Indeed, shortly thereafter a substantial 2 hour double bottom was registered on the test of the 101.05 level. That price pattern seemed to confirm a bearish crab suggesting a point d. target of 105.28 going forward. Interestingly, I couldn't find too many bulls around through that bottoming process which suggests to me this market could move higher for a bit. However, a 'bearish crab' is a short harmonic pattern setup and any failure after the 105.28 level is hit should represent a significant selling window.

Personal journal:I am finding trading tough of late. The market is not trending so as a result, Brian the trend follower, just isn't doing much. I did not hit my personal goal this past week as I had a net losing balance. This is my only real goal for the coming week - to finish with a net positive balance on the week.

Trading Plan: While the market goes through this seasonally challenging time of year plus a US Federal Government shutdown, I can clearly see the fluidity of continuation patterns has been suspect. 'BoT' trading has been tough and I find through these 'non-trending' markets, the HVT setup seems to be the only one that keeps one out of trouble. I therefore am going to implement a hybrid of the OTE Short Sweet Spot / Momentum Divergence / HVT  setup for the next week. I shall only be taking these setups and my goal is to only take 3-5 trades through the coming week specifically off this setup.


 
That's all for this post, 
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/

Screenshot of current '$30k' trading plan: