Sunday, October 6, 2013

Update for the week of October 4th, 2013

Welcome back to CRI's ongoing Crude Oil Day Trading Blog.

The first picture is the daily, weekly and 120 minute charts with Crude Oil's term structure and CoT summary for the week of Oct. 4th, 2013. Each trading day (time permitting) a 15 minute chart is added and trades for that day are reviewed:





Market Overview: Most of the major currency pairs spent the week extending previously established directions vs. the greenback as there were few new commodity trends established through the first week of Q4\'13. Since it is the new quarter, I for one shall be watching to see if that continues through the entire \'1st 2 weeks\' of the quarter (to get an idea of where fund managers are putting their money to work). Looking at the market from a broader perspective, stocks look very over extended while bonds have yet to really turn higher in earnest. October has historically seen some wild gyrations through its end, shall this go round be any different? That is too hard to tell at this point but I for one would not considering any purchases of significance until after it starts to snow and/or we hear some serious crying. 

Weekly highlight: This past week saw both the daily bear ab=cd target (102.08) and the daily 50% level (101.26) get hit. Indeed, shortly thereafter a substantial 2 hour double bottom was registered on the test of the 101.05 level. That price pattern seemed to confirm a bearish crab suggesting a point d. target of 105.28 going forward. Interestingly, I couldn't find too many bulls around through that bottoming process which suggests to me this market could move higher for a bit. However, a 'bearish crab' is a short harmonic pattern setup and any failure after the 105.28 level is hit should represent a significant selling window.

Personal journal:I am finding trading tough of late. The market is not trending so as a result, Brian the trend follower, just isn't doing much. I did not hit my personal goal this past week as I had a net losing balance. This is my only real goal for the coming week - to finish with a net positive balance on the week.

Trading Plan: While the market goes through this seasonally challenging time of year plus a US Federal Government shutdown, I can clearly see the fluidity of continuation patterns has been suspect. 'BoT' trading has been tough and I find through these 'non-trending' markets, the HVT setup seems to be the only one that keeps one out of trouble. I therefore am going to implement a hybrid of the OTE Short Sweet Spot / Momentum Divergence / HVT  setup for the next week. I shall only be taking these setups and my goal is to only take 3-5 trades through the coming week specifically off this setup.


 
That's all for this post, 
Brian Beamish FCSI
The Canadian Rational Investor
the_rational_investor@yahoo.com
http://www.therationalinvestor.ca
http://crisdaytrading.blogspot.ca/

Screenshot of current '$30k' trading plan:

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